BIB Bank Intelligence Brief
Beta · Live surveillance

Real-time macroprudential surveillance for Indonesian banking. Composite global financial cycle factor, credit-spread signals, and bank-level sensitivity — built on 25 years of OJK data and daily FRED indicators.

Current Regime · Snapshot Loading…
Composite GFC Factor
—
Loading…
−3.0 Risk-on 0 +3.0 Risk-off
BAA Spread
—%
—
—
VIX
—
—
—
Fed Funds
—%
—
—

The Signal That Matters — BAA Spread vs VIX

Weekly · Past 5 Years

The operative shock is corporate credit spread, not equity volatility. When the BAA spread widens and stays wide, Indonesian bank credit contracts within two to three years — even if the VIX has already mean-reverted. This is the early-warning signal Indonesian macroprudential surveillance should elevate.

BAA Corporate Credit Spread (%, left axis) VIX (index, right axis)

Composite Global Financial Cycle Factor — Full History

Weekly · Since 2015

Six episodes visible. Peaks >+1σ mark risk-off phases (2015 CNY, 2018 EM, 2020 COVID, 2022–23 Fed hike). Troughs <−1σ mark accommodation phases where cheap dollar funding drove upside credit transmission.

GFC factor (weekly) 30-day moving average

Sensitivity by Bank Ownership — Cross-Section

97 BUK · Interaction coefficient at h=2 from paper

Ownership dominates size in cycle transmission. Foreign-owned banks respond three times more strongly to global cycle shocks than regional state banks. This is the empirical foundation for revising Indonesia's D-SIB designation methodology to weight ownership alongside asset size.

97 Commercial Banks — Sensitivity & Snapshot

Latest available · Sorted by assets
# Bank Ownership Assets (T) CAR (%) NPL (%) FX Ratio β Sensitivity
Sensitivity coefficient (β) from Khasan (2026, BMEB submitted), Table 3 heterogeneity interactions at h=2. Higher β → stronger response to global cycle shocks. Foreign = 0.150 (reference), Private Domestic = 0.101, State = 0.057, Regional State = 0.012.

Historical Episodes — Bank-Level Response

Event-study coefficients at h=2 years · from paper
Episode Window Regime Credit Δ (log pts) NPL Δ (pp)

Methodology & Source Research

Reproducible · Peer-reviewed

How the Composite Factor Is Built

Six US financial-market series z-scored and combined by the first principal component loadings from Khasan (2026): VIX (+0.41), BAA corporate spread (+0.56), TED spread (+0.39), Fed Funds rate (−0.55), 10-year Treasury yield (−0.41), dollar index (−0.21).

Positive values denote risk-off conditions. Negative values denote accommodation.

Underlying Paper

Global Financial Cycle Transmission to Indonesian Commercial Bank Balance Sheets: Bank-Level Panel Evidence, 2002–2025.

Presented at the 20th BMEB International Conference, Bali, 31 July 2026.

Session materials →

Data Sources

US financial-market series: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), refreshed daily.

Indonesian banking panel: OJK Commercial Bank Financial Reports (CFS), 97 BUK, 2002–2025.

Episode dating: pre-specified from macro-finance literature (Rey 2013; MAR 2020).

Refresh Cadence

FRED daily series: updated every 24 hours (US market close).

Composite GFC factor: recomputed nightly using rolling parameters from the paper.

Bank-level panel: refreshed quarterly on OJK release cycle.

Access, feedback, or institutional inquiry?

BIB is currently in beta. Public dashboard is free. Institutional access — including bank-level detail, custom alerts, and API — is available on request. We are inviting Bank Indonesia, OJK, LPS, and commercial-bank ALM teams to pilot the platform.

Request institutional access Read the paper